Полный текст:
Contents
Introduction...................................................................................................... 3
1. Major U.S.-China Trade
Issues..................................................................... 4
2. The labor market in China
U.S. - China Trade Relations............................. 7
Conclusion...................................................................................................... 17
References....................................................................................................... 18
Application..................................................................................................... 19
Introduction
International labor migration - one of the main
manifestations of globalization. According to the ILO, in 2002, worldwide there
were more than 90 million foreign workers, which accounted for an average of
about 12% of the economically active population in developed countries (1% in Japan to 23% in Australia). In subsequent years,
these rates continued to increase. The data of the International Organization
for Migration (IOM) show that the number of migrants living outside their
country of origin, grew from 150 million in 2000 to 214 million - in 2009
The migration changes of quantitative
parameters of the labor market determine the changes in the dynamics and
quality of economic growth in donor countries, and in the recipient countries.
Labor migration (within and between countries) existed in the past, and in the
nineteenth century, creating, among other things, a lot of problems. But, with
globalization, they are much more complicated.
This paper discusses features of the labor
potential of China for the
development of China - U.S.
trade relations.
At a time when further
improvement of China's economy also is in question, the prospects for global
growth looks particularly bleak. Countries such as China need to develop local
market for their products and reduce dependence on exports and the demand of
Western consumers. Countries with high consumption, such as the United States,
is to develop the manufacturing sector and increase investment in
infrastructure. Only then can the structural imbalances in the global economy
could be eliminated, making it more stable.
1. Major
U.S.-China Trade Issues
China’s economic reforms and rapid economic
growth, along with the effects of globalization, have caused the economies of
the United States and China to become increasingly integrated.58 Although
growing U.S.-China economic ties are considered by most analysts to be mutually
beneficial overall, tensions have risen over a number of Chinese economic and
trade policies that many U.S. critics charge are protectionist, economically
distortive, and damaging to U.S. economic interests. These include China’s resistance to adopting a market-based
currency; its mixed record on implementing its obligations in the World Trade
Organization (WTO), including its failure to provide adequate protection of U.S.
intellectual property rights (IPR); and its use of industrial policies,
including discriminatory government procurement policies, to promote and
protect various Chinese domestic industries. Some Members have argued that,
given the high rate of U.S.
unemployment, China’s
“unfair” economic and trade policies can no longer be tolerated, and have urged
the Obama Administration to more aggressively use the trade tools at its
disposal to challenge such policies whenever possible, such as U.S. trade
remedy laws and the WTO’s dispute resolution mechanism.
A 2011 survey by the American Chamber of
Commerce of its members in China
illustrates China’s
opportunities and challenges for U.S. firms. It reported that 78% of
those surveyed said that they made a profit in China in 2010, and 85% said they
would boost investment in their Chinese operations in 2010. However, 35% of
respondents stated that it has become more difficult to obtain businesses
licenses in recent years and 25% said that China’s indigenous innovation
policies (discussed below) were hurting their businesses.
Unlike most advanced economies (such as the United States), China does not maintain a
market-based floating exchange rate. Between 1994 and July 2005, China pegged its currency, the renminbi (RMB) or
yuan, to the U.S. dollar at about 8.28 yuan to the dollar.61 In July 2005, China
appreciated the RMB to the dollar by 2.1% and moved to a “managed float,” based
on a basket of major foreign currencies, including the U.S. dollar. In order to
maintain a target rate of exchange with the dollar (and other currencies), the
Chinese government has maintained restrictions and controls over capital
transactions and has made large-scale purchases of U.S. dollars (and dollar
assets).62 According to the Bank of China, from July 2005 to July 2009, the
dollar-yuan exchange rate went from 8.27 to 6.83 yuan per dollar, an
appreciation of 21.1%.63 However, once the effects of the global financial
crisis became apparent, the Chinese government halted its appreciation of the
RMB and subsequently kept the yuan/dollar exchange rate relatively constant at
6.83 from July 2009 to June 2010
in order to help limit the impact of the sharp decline
in global demand for Chinese products.[1]
Many U.S. policymakers, labor groups, and
business representatives of import-sensitive industries have charged that,
despite minor reforms, the Chinese government continues to manipulate its
currency in order to keep the value of its currency artificially low against
the dollar (with estimates of undervaluation ranging from 15% to 50%). They claim
that this policy constitutes a de facto subsidy for Chinese exports to the United States, and acts as a de facto tariff on
Chinese imported U.S.
goods. They complain that this policy has particularly hurt several U.S. manufacturing sectors that are forced to
compete against low-cost Chinese products, and has led to the loss of hundreds
of thousands of U.S.
jobs. Critics further charge that China’s
currency policy has been a major factor in the size and growth of the U.S. trade deficit with China. Some Members
of Congress contend that, given the current high rate of unemployment in the United States,
Chinese “currency manipulation” can no longer be tolerated.
Numerous bills have been introduced in Congress
over the past few years that would seek to induce China
to reform its currency policy or would attempt to address the perceived effects
that policy has on the U.S.
economy. For example, one bill in the 108th Congress (S. 1586) would have
imposed an additional duty of 27.5% on imported Chinese products unless China
appreciated its currency to near market levels. In the 111th Congress, the
House passed an amended version of H.R. 2378, which would have made certain
misaligned currencies (such as the RMB) actionable under U.S. countervailing
duty cases on foreign government export subsidies (although the Senate did not
take up the bill); the bill has been re-introduced in the 112th Congress.[2]
Negotiations for China’s accession to the
General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and its successor organization,
the WTO, began in 1986 and took over 15 years to complete. During the WTO
negotiations, Chinese officials insisted that China was a developing country and
should be allowed to enter under fairly lenient terms. The United States insisted that China could enter
the WTO only if it substantially liberalized its trade regime. In the end, a
compromise was reached that required China to make immediate and extensive
reductions in various trade and investment barriers, while allowing it to
maintain some level of protection (or a transitional period of protection) for
certain sensitive sectors. China’s
WTO membership was formally approved at the WTO Ministerial Conference in Doha, Qatar,
on November 10, 2001. On November 11, 2001, China notified the WTO that it had formally
ratified the WTO agreements, and on December 11, 2001, it formally joined the
WTO.
2. The
labor market in China U.S.
- China
Trade Relations
Rising labor costs in China could lead to a return of 3 million U.S. jobs by
2020 and reduce unemployment (now - 9.1%), predicts BCG.
Due to the transfer of power in other countries
the U.S. has lost over 10 years, 5.6 million seats and reduced the share of
world industrial production from 27 to 19%, China's share rose from 7% in 2000
to 19.7% in 2010, but Now American companies are increasingly thinking about
returning to his homeland, said Scott Paul of the Alliance for American
Manufacturing. Price of issue - $ 364 billion: the cost of annual U.S. imports from China
(Ministry of Trade data for the United
States, 2010).
The average wage in the country for five years
has doubled in 10 years - to 4-fold (National Bureau of Statistics). The
minimum annual salary in China
- $ 1500: 2.2 times higher than in Cambodia,
2 times - than in India, by
1.9 times - than in Bangladesh,
and 1.5 times - than in Vietnam
(data from IMF .)[3]
But the competitiveness of U.S.
manufacturing is growing. Production of simple goods in China has become even less profitable than, say,
Vietnam, Mexico or Russia. American workers are more qualified.
What they can do 15 American workers, would require hiring 70 people in China.
Return of capacity in the U.S. will reduce the trade deficit to $ 360
billion to $ 260 billion by 2020, and will reduce the imbalance with China (now - $
273 billion) projected in the BCG. If the leak becomes significant jobs, the
government of China
will take active countermeasures, and may begin to provide benefits.
The difficult economic situation, the lack of
many natural resources, incomplete formation of the modern system of management
of the economy - all this limits the scope for effective employment of people,
and to some extent, affects the secondary employment. Although the measures
taken in China
to establish a socialist market economy, greatly enlivened the functioning of
the economic mechanism of enterprises.
Of course, the socialist market economy, and
the corresponding mechanisms of employment does not arise all at once. The
reform of the enterprise management system - this is only the beginning of
reforms designed to transform the organization of labor and income distribution
as a whole. It is clear that the appropriate conditions for the full use of
human resources and employment growth has not yet been created.
Shortage of skilled labor, and material resources,
the deterioration of ecological environment interfere with the successful
socio-economic development of China.
The level of security the main natural resources per capita in the country
below the world average. The most acute is the shortage of fresh water, arable
land and grassland: the provision of income per capita in China in third
below average. In such circumstances, to achieve a decent level of consumption
of citizens to actively develop agriculture, improve the efficiency of
industrial production sectors.
Unfortunately, economic growth is accompanied
by serious violations of environmental and pollution problems that threaten the
survival and development of the state.[4]
What is the best use of limited material and
environmental resources, human resources more fully implement the country
efficiently and effectively promote employment - that's the problem, the
solution of which continue to operate and the public authorities of China.
The country has not yet formed a socio-economic
environment in which skilled workers are respected and financially rewarded for
competence and creative attitude toward labor.
The current mechanism does not contribute to
pay the full realization of the labor potential of employees, their skills
often do not meet the requirements defined by global competition.
It should be noted that since the beginning of
market reforms understanding the crucial role of knowledge and professionalism
in achieving good results at work is growing. But in practice so far in China, jobs are
often not take the appropriate professional qualifications and the organization
of people recruited on the basis of personal preferences and interests of
managers. This kind of imbalance in personnel policies adversely affect the
preparation and use of human resources. If the situation does not change the
overall quality of human resources will be reduced, and China's
competitiveness in the global economy begins to fall.
Human resources are transformed into active,
skilled and motivated employees, after preparation and adaptation of the
workplace, where each value should be determined based on the results of labor
and adequately reflected in the size of his pay. Only then can we expect proper
return. If you do not use financial incentives and the potential of a person
completely, the competitiveness of the organization falls, and the money spent
on training and development of people have found themselves on the wind.
First of all, for a long time will be strictly
limited population growth, to regulate supply and demand in the employment
field. It is important to continue the policy of "planned birth" and
ensure its implementation by implementing the relevant laws, economic policies
and the organization of the media involved in her explanation.
It is advisable to shorten the workweek for
enterprises to control the level of unemployment, a broad network of labor
exchanges, ensuring that the employment of skilled workers in accordance with
their training. In the case of approximation in the unemployment rate to a critical
level necessary to expand employment in public works, to help the unemployed
movement in developing regions and sectors, thereby reducing social tensions.
Preparation and management of human resources,
which are essential and
permanent driving force for progress in modern China,
it should be put at the forefront of long-term strategy development. After all,
its the world's largest human capital - a powerful competitive advantage. The
challenge is to make this resource the qualities that would enable him to
realize the full extent. This is possible through the massive and substantial
training of the working population.
Developing and implementing an effective
strategy for the use of human resources in the economy, financing measures to
promote the employment of the population, the government influences the
formation of labor force quality, with modern scientific and technical level.
Rising production costs and wages in China
would lead to the conclusion that U.S. manufacturing companies from China by the
end of this decade, causing the appearance in the U.S. and 3 million new jobs,
writing in The Financial Times on Friday, citing data from research conducted
by Boston Consulting Group. According to experts, more and more American
companies that have production facilities in China,
will be returning to the United
States. Such data may gladden the U.S. White
House, who has made the production of a key point in the program country's
economic recovery. By the year 2020, according to researchers, about 15% of U.S. goods brands that are now produced in China,
"return" to their homeland. The converse is true: Chinese companies
are beginning to see the U.S.
not only market but also excellent opportunities to develop their own
production. "While the labor cost in China
is growing, the U.S.
improve competitiveness - said co-owner of FT Chinese company for the
production of candles and home goods Chesapeake Bay Candle Mei Hsu. - We can
invest in automation of production in order to make our candles in a factory
near Baltimore, and costs will be comparable to
the cost of such work in China.
" Chesapeake Bay Candle has already created 50 jobs in the United States
and is preparing to build another 50
in 2012. The United States
has moved half of production capacity, although a year ago, all its products
made in China.
And the Boston Consulting believes that this example - just confirmation of a
much broader trend. Relocation of the facilities from China to the United States gives companies
another advantage: the proximity of production to the end user, which allows
not only to save on transport costs, but also to respond quickly to any changes
in customer preferences.
Working hours, working week, as well as the
number of holidays for companies of mixed capital labor regulations conform to
state-owned enterprises. Thus, in accordance with the laws of the PRC amount of
the basic wages of Chinese workers and employees must at 20-50% higher than the
wages of workers and employees in located in the same area of public companies of
similar profile. Such an approach to China to explain that the application at
sites with the participation of foreign capital of more modern techniques and
technologies, increasing demands of foreign investors in the organization of
production and labor discipline rise to a higher level of intensity and staff
productivity SP compared with public sector enterprises.
In addition, using the proceeds received by
them, the joint venture shall make payments to the state social insurance funds
and public consumption, as well as compensate for government subsidies for
housing, medical care, education, acquisition of certain kinds of food, etc.
Sino-American Shanghai-Foxboro Company, which
employs 350 people, production staff, has developed a differentiated system of
criteria for 215 professions, positions and skill categories. If necessary,
selected employees can take short courses of industrial training, after which
in some cases, you should re-examination. An important tool is strictly
selective recruitment of workers is the practice of hiring a probationary
period of up to six months, after which finally formed the regular structure of
the company. All this provides a careful selection of the most skilled and
capable workers, who after qualifying tests conclude an employment contract
with the joint venture on a collective or individual basis. A signed employment
contract approved by the local government of Labour and Human Resources.[5]
Employees of joint ventures, which have become
redundant due to changes in technical and other conditions of production, after
a preliminary (one month) notice may be dismissed before the expiration of the
employment contract. In some cases, in order to update the personnel of the
company rather actively resorted to this method. For example, Canton hotel
Zhongguo, built with the participation of Houpuell Holdings Limited. (Hong Kong), during the first two and a half years of
work, laid off more than 200 people from among the staff. Thus, in accordance
with the law exempt employees must be paid severance pay as determined by the
principle of each year of service - a monthly salary. This rule does not apply
to the resignations of their own volition.
When China entered the WTO in 2001, it agreed
to allow the United States to continue to treat it as a non-market economy for
12 years (codified in U.S. law under Sections 421of the 1974 Trade Act, as
amended) for the purpose of U.S. safeguards.100 This provision enables the
United States (and other WTO members) to impose restrictions (such as quotas
and/or increased tariffs) on Chinese products when imports of those products
have sharply increased and have caused, or threaten to cause, market disruption
to U.S. domestic producers.101 The Bush Administration on six different
occasions chose not to extend relief to various industries under the
China-specific safeguard, even though in four cases the U.S. International
Trade Commission (USITC) recommended relief. A number of U.S. industries and labor groups have called on
the Obama Administration to utilize the China
safeguard provision, especially in the face of the current U.S. recession and because of
“unfair” Chinese trade practices.
On April 24, 2009, the United Steel, Paper and
Forestry, Rubber, Manufacturing, Energy, Allied Industrial and Service Workers
International Union (USW) filed a petition with the USITC contending that U.S. imports of passenger vehicle and light
truck tires from China
caused or threatened to cause market disruption to U.S. domestic producers of like or
directly competitive products. In June 2009, the USITC announced that it had
determined such imports did in fact cause or threaten to cause market
disruption, and recommended the imposition of additional tariffs over three
years (55% in the first year, 45% in the second, and 35% in the third) and to
provide expedited consideration of Trade Adjustment Assistance for firms and/or
workers that are affected by such imports.
The USW argued that the “extraordinary increase
in imports” of tires from China had hurt tire producers in the United States
and contributed to the loss of 5,100 U.S. tire-related jobs from 2004-2008, and
that 3,000 more jobs would be lost in 2009. Producers of tires in the United
States, many of whom have joint venture operations in China, did not express support
for the safeguard case, and some actively opposed it.103 Some industry
representatives argued that a large share of U.S. tire imports from China were
low-end products, that the USITC’s proposed increase in tariffs were excessive
and punitive, and that such tariffs would hurt U.S. consumers and do little to
boost employment in the U.S. tire industry. On September 11, 2009, President
Obama announced that he would impose additional tariffs on certain Chinese
tires for three years (35% in the first year, 30% in the second year, and 25%
in the final year); these levels were less than the USITC’s recommendations. China called the move protectionist and
initiated a WTO trade dispute resolution case against the United States
on September 14. In
addition, on November 11, 2009, China
launched antidumping and countervailing cases against U.S. autos and poultry, seen by many analysts as
a retaliatory move over the U.S.
safeguard measure on tires.
The problem of an excessively large
preponderance of Chinese in the mutual trade between the two countries. Thus,
according to U.S. trade
statistics, from nearly $ 600 billion trade deficit last year $ 252 billion
(42%) are in China
alone.
Naturally, this kind of bias in favor of one
trading partner can not bother politicians of both countries, moreover, that
this bias, as is often customary, several parties, and for someone they are
bright, but for someone - the dark.
First the dark side, which is primarily
concerned about the U.S.
administration - is creeping de-industrialization of America. Transfer of production of
goods in China
has been so beneficial event in front of him, few survived, and as a result of
production capacity of American industry moved to another continent. For U.S. corporations such territorial migration
proved to be very profitable, because labor costs in China
as an example to less than the U.S..
For the Chinese economy a massive transfer of production from the U.S., for
obvious reasons, too, was very helpful. But now for the U.S. labor
market, demand for which is steadily decreasing, the territorial migration of
American industry is highly undesirable, because it may cause (or already has)
to chronic unemployment, and a very high standard. This can be seen on the
relevant indicators:
Total US Exports to China - 41.837 $ millions (2005)
Total US Exports to China - 69.576 $ millions (2009)
The share of labor migration on China :
- 19, 2% (2005)
- 91.9% (2009)
The difference in migration was - 4.7 times,
which is reflected in the increase in America's economic performance in
the direction of increasing by 1.4 times.
The second dark side, which logically follows
from the first - is a sharp deterioration in economic conditions for those
parts of American industry, which have not been able (or unable) to relocate
production to China.
They have to compete with the goods-analogs produced work of Chinese workers,
which costs much less than their own, and what this competition is over, it is
easy to predict.
Since China's
chronic trade surplus with the United States,
the consequence is the existence of huge surplus cash balances in U.S. dollars
that are invested by Chinese monetary authorities in U.S. government securities. Since
this process has been going on for a long time, China,
in addition, that is the largest supplier of goods to the U.S. market, at the same time became the largest
investor in U.S.
government bond market. By the end of 2010, net public debt amounted to U.S. $
9.2 trillion. And currency reserves of China
- $ 2.85 trillion., We can assume that China accounts for about 30% of
this debt. Thus, financing the U.S. budget deficit, more and more into the
hands of one investor, and such asymmetry is hardly pleased with the issuer of
the debt. And this is the fifth (and too dark) side of the giant trade imbalance
between U.S. and China.
More detailed econometric indicators can be
found in Table 1.
Table 1
Econometric measures of trade
dependence on China and the U.S. labor
force
China
USA
labor expenses
exports
imports
difference
labor expenses
exports
imports
difference
1990
11,77
6,59
2,18
-1,41
20,03
15,22
4,81
-10,41
1992
14,20
8,01
6,19
-0,31
25,27
18,98
6,29
-12,69
1995
17,49
8,90
8,59
6,27
33,20
25,73
7,47
-18,26
1999
27,65
10,69
16,96
10,54
40,30
31,53
8,77
-22,77
2001
42,84
16,15
26,69
22,47
63,47
51,50
11,98
-39,52
2003
61,43
19,48
41,97
28,08
94,90
81,79
13,12
-68,67
2006
80,48
26,20
54,28
42,70
121,52
102,28
19,23
-83,05
2008
97,18
27,23
69,93
80,27
147,22
125,17
22,05
-103,12
2009
169,62
44,68
124,95
87,26
231,42
196,70
34,72
-231,42
2010
302,08
69,38
232,70
163,32
386,75
321,51
65,24
-256,27
Between Chinese and U.S.
sides have been disagreements over the origin and magnitude of the negative
balance of U.S..
Given that in this period, the gross volume of bilateral trade was not high,
this problem was not so acute, such as the labor market. Most of the volumes
received by the Chinese side, that is, the labor market in China, unlike the U.S., as shown in Table 1,
significantly higher than that due to the high number of human resources.
China exported to the U.S.
labor-intensive products to reflect the major advantages of the country - a
vast amount of labor work force and low cost. Exports in China, the U.S. was labor-intensive products
with high added value.
If you sum up all the dark and bright sides of
economic relations between China
and the U.S.,
winning the American side is seemingly less. Therefore, the U.S. side is
actively seeking a way out, but the solutions it offers, great originality of
the same. And in the current talks, Hu Jintao to the United
States, and earlier, under the previous Administration,
the U.S.
put forward only one option to address the trade imbalance - the revaluation of
the yuan. In the opinion of American experts, this measure should give a double
effect: to increase the cost of Chinese goods while reducing the cost of
American goods. After that, Chinese imports to the United States seems to be
reduced, while U.S. exports to China - to increase, and the trade balance is
equalized.
But the Chinese side on these lines does not
agree to the proposal, responding to them evasive. And this equivocation is
understandable, as markets and to give within their own country and in the U.S. they
really do not want. But the American side, while pretending to insist, in fact,
is not very interested in the revaluation of the yuan. After all, if the
revaluation to take place, the profits of American corporations with production
facilities in China,
greatly reduced. And that is very much like to avoid.
Conclusion
For any state in which there are processes of
emigration and immigration, it is important to establish the periodic
monitoring of data on the quantitative and qualitative aspects of these
processes and especially the qualification of those who enter and those who leave
the country. This will help to objectively evaluate the impact of migration on
the development of national economy, in time to identify adverse trends.
Institutions designed to professionally managed
in this area of state activity, must continually monitor migration flows, to
achieve the equilibrium inflow of skilled labor and FDI.
Excessive influx of predominantly unskilled and
cheap labor inevitably leads to the substitution of capital and labor to
capital outflows from the national economy, reduce the rate and quality of
economic growth and average wage. Moreover, this leads to increased pressure on
the public budget and, consequently, the need to increase taxes. Imigratsiya
workforce increases the quality of the labor-exporting countries and importing
countries.
Due to massive imports of Chinese goods in the U.S. market
held relatively low and stable prices. For American consumers, it is
certainly a great benefit. But the direct benefits of consumers is not
terminated. Just because of their stability, the U.S. Federal Reserve can
easily implement monetary pumping of the U.S. economy without fear of a sharp
rise in prices.
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US Trade with China 2008-2010
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